Scottish Election's big uncertainties: Will SNP get majority, will Alba undermine their support, and will Labour voters back Tories' debatable claim to be best hope for Union? – Professor John Curtice

Scottish Election's big uncertainties: Will SNP get majority, will Alba undermine their support, and will Labour voters back Tories' debatable claim to be best hope for Union? – Professor John Curtice

At the same time, the Greens could well be heading for a record performance and certainly should do well enough to ensure that, irrespective of exactly how well the SNP do, a majority of MSPs will be in favour of holding another referendum, thereby setting up a clash with Boris Johnson in the not-too-distant future. That matters for two reasons. First, if Nicola Sturgeon has a majority she will be able to dictate when and how a second referendum is pursued. She will not be having constantly to look over her shoulder to ensure the Greens are still onside. Second, it was the SNP’s success in winning an overall majority in 2011 which paved the way for the ballot that was eventually held in September 2014. That election persuaded David Cameron the SNP had won the ‘moral right’ to hold a referendum – and so if the feat were to be repeated this time Boris Johnson will be left with the difficult job of explaining why that precedent should not apply now. This reflects the fact that how many seats …
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