CBA: Labour market strengthened again in May
By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA.
• Wages and salaries paid into CBA bank accounts lifted over May which points to growth in employment and hours worked in the month.
• The number of CBA customers receiving the JobSeeker payment continued to decline over May which indicates unemployment fell over the month.
• We forecast employment to rise by 20k in the May labour force survey following a 30.6k contraction in April.We expect the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1pptsto 5.4%on an unchanged participation rate.
The May labour force survey is shaping up as a key data point for financial market participants for two reasons:
• (i)it will fully capture the impact of the expiry of JobKeeper on the labour market; and
• (ii)it is the last official read on the labour market ahead of the July RBA Board meeting where a decision will be announced on yield curve control and the bond buying program.
From a forecasting perspective, the May labour force data is a difficult task for economists. On the one hand, measures of labour …
More on: www.macrobusiness.com.au